PAGE (Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect)

PAGE projects future increases in global mean temperature (GMT), the economic costs of damages caused by climate change, the economic costs of mitigation policies, and the overall impage of adaptation measures (including costs of adaptation measures and reduction in damage costs that results from adaptation).

global mean temperatureeconomicclimate changemitigationadaptation



Initial contribute: 2021-12-15


Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
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Application-focused categoriesIntegrated-perspectiveGlobal scale
Application-focused categoriesIntegrated-perspectiveRegional scale

Detailed Description

English {{currentDetailLanguage}} English

Quoted from: Moore, F., Rising, J., Lollo, N. et al. Mimi-PAGE, an open-source implementation of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model. Sci Data 5, 180187 (2018). 

PAGE09 model, the latest iteration of the PAGE model, originally developed in 1993 (refs7,11,12). PAGE09 is an eight-region model that takes income, population and emissions policy as inputs, and models the effect of emissions of four different greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and a collection of other greenhouse gases (termed ‘linear gases’ in PAGE because of the linear relationship between concentration and radiative forcing).

PAGE09 uses a radiative balance climate model to simulate global and regional temperature changes and sea-level rise. Warming and sea-level rise cause damage in 4 different sectors: market sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, tourism etc), non-market sectors (e.g. mortality and ecosystem damages), sea-level rise (i.e. coastal flooding) and a stochastic discontinuity (a one-time tipping point resulting in a large loss of GDP). PAGE also models an exogenously-determined adaptation policy that reduces impacts in three of the sectors for a price. Finally, the costs of reducing emissions below their business-as-usual path (called preventative costs in PAGE) are also calculated. PAGE09 simulates outcomes at variable time-steps starting in the default model at 2008 and ending in 2200.

A key feature of PAGE09 is the inclusion of uncertainty distributions (triangular distributions in the default version of the model) for over 100 key scientific and economic parameters. This allows PAGE to be run probabilistically through a Monte Carlo procedure to generate outcome distributions. More details on PAGE09 are given in Hope (2013)7.


Chris Hope (with John Anderson, Paul Wenman, and Erica Plambeck) (2021). PAGE (Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), Model Item, OpenGMS,


Initial contribute : 2021-12-15



Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
Is authorship not correct? Feed back

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