泥石流沟谷演化的不等时距灰色预测模型
（1）泥石流沟谷纵剖面形态：
在条件均一、构造典型下的河谷纵剖面方程：
式中，h，l分别为河谷中某点距河口的高差。河长；h0，L分别为流域高差河河流全场；N为纵剖面形态指数。
（2）N值的不等时距灰色预测方法：
设原始列数为：x（0）（k），k=1,2，…，n且x（0）（k）与x（0）（k-1）之间的时距为T（k）-T（k-1）。
原始数据的一次累加式：
k=1时：
x（1）（k）=x（0）（k）
k≥2时：
据此做GM（1,1）预测，得预测得累加量
，再按
式计算预测值。
修正后的预测式：
蒋忠信：泥石流沟谷演化的不等时距灰色预测模型。地理研究，1994，13（3）
Debris flow refers to the mountainous or other valleys of deep valleys, terrain in steep areas, because of heavy rain, Blizzard or other natural disasters caused by landslides and carrying a large number of sediment and the special torrent of stones. Debris flow with a sudden and fast flow, flow, material capacity and destructive power and so on. Occurrence of debris flow often washed away highway and other transport facilities and even villages and towns, resulting in huge losses.
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