水资源风险管理模型

水资源风险管理模型

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Initial contribute: 2018-12-04

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Affiliation:  
岳天祥编著
Email:  
yue@lreis.ac.cn
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水资源风险管理模型

 

(1)风险和可靠性:

如果把供水系统干旱状态记为F∈(L>R),正常状态记为S∈(L≤R),那么,供水系统的风险为:

             R=P(L>R)=P{XtF}

式中,X1为供水系统状态变量。相应的,供水系统的可靠性为α=P(L≤R)=P{Xt∈S}=1-r。

如果对供水系统的工作状态有长期的记录,可靠性也可以定义为供水系统能够正常供水的时间与整个供水期历时之比,即:

                                              

式中,NS为供水期的总历时;It为供水系统的状态变量,                                                  

(2)恢复性:

1)

                            

引入整数变量,由式(1)

         

 

可得:                                   

                         

 

,则有:

 

 

(3)易损性:

为了定量表示系统的易损性,假定系统第i次干旱的损失程度为Si,其相应的发生概率为Pi,则系统的易损性可表达为

 

2)

式中,NF为系统干旱的总次数。

在供水系统的风险分析中,可以用缺水量来描述系统干旱的损失程度。类似洪水分析,在此假定不同缺水量的干旱事件是同频率的,则式(2)可写为:

                       

式中,VEi为第i次干旱的缺水量。

为了消除需水量的不同影响,一般采用相对值:

            

式中,VDi为第i次干旱的需水量。

 

冯平:供水系统干旱期的水资源风险管理。自然资源学报,1998,13(2)

 

How to Cite

《资源环境数学模型手册》 (2018). 水资源风险管理模型, Model Item, OpenGMS, https://geomodeling.njnu.edu.cn/modelItem/8365551e-9faa-4a40-a3b2-1f0583375c10
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Contributor

Initial contribute: 2018-12-04

Co-contributor(s)

Authorship

Affiliation:  
岳天祥编著
Email:  
yue@lreis.ac.cn
Homepage:  
View
Is authorship not correct? Feedback

History

Last modifier : 
Last modify time : 
2020-11-30
Modify times : 
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