Summary

The Crop Production Percentile and Crop Production Regression models estimate crop yield and nutrient value for a fixed set of crops, derived from user-supplied landcover information. Crop yield is primarily driven by climate, and if fertilizer rates are available, they may also be taken into account with the Regression model.

Introduction

Expanding agricultural production and closing yield gaps is a key strategy for many governments and development agencies focused on poverty alleviation and achieving food security. However, conversion of natural habitats to agricultural production impacts other ecosystem services that are key to sustaining the economic benefits that agriculture provides to local communities. Intensive agricultural practices can add to pollution loads in water sources, often necessitating future costly water purification methods. Overuse of water also threatens the supply available for hydropower or other services. Still, crop production is essential to human well-being and livelihoods. The InVEST crop production model allows detailed examination of the costs and benefits of this vital human enterprise, including exploration of questions such as:

• How would a different arrangement or selection of cropping systems compare to current systems in terms of total production? Could switching crops yield higher economic returns or nutritional value?

• What are the impacts of crop intensification on ecosystem services? If less land is used to produce equal amounts of food by increasing intensification, is the net result on ecosystem services production positive or negative?

• How can we evaluate different strategies for meeting increasing food demand while minimizing the impact on ecosystem services?

The Model

The InVEST crop production model is divided into a percentile based yield model, covering 175 crops worldwide, and a regression based model that accounts for fertilization rates on 12 crops. These models are deployed to the end user as the “percentile” and “regression” models.

All results are paried with observed results from the same region for quality control checks as well as nutrition information for 33 macro and micronutrients.