城市犯罪区位选择的数学模拟

城市犯罪区位选择的数学模拟

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contributed at 2018-12-04

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Affiliation:  
岳天祥编著
Email:  
yue@lreis.ac.cn
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Application-focused categoriesHuman-perspectiveSocial activities

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城市犯罪区位选择的数学模拟

(1)犯罪活动的区位优化模式:

 

式中,E为在1区和2区实施第k次犯罪的期望效用之差;Pi为每次犯罪成功的概率;s为犯罪次数;U为单个罪犯犯罪的效用函数;h为在实施第h次犯罪时被抓获。

(2)不同地区的犯罪活动水平模型:

假定罪犯在每个地区每次作案的收益和成功概率是不变的,并设罪犯在1区作案h次,在2区作案(s-h)次,则:

 

式中,罪犯将在1区实施后s’次犯罪;在2区实施前s-h’犯罪(h’s的上界)。上式表明,当1-[(1-α)/(1-β)]<0时,即使P1<P2罪犯有可能集中选择1区作案;当1-[(1-α)/(1-β)]>0则罪犯在两个地区都有作案的可能。

(3)多区域区位选择:

 

式中,△E为在c地区和m地区实施第k次犯罪的期望效用之差。

 

△E为负时,罪犯将从n区往回窜,然后再转移到W值最低的地区作案

 

参考文献

杜德斌,汤建中:城市犯罪区位选择的数学模拟。地理研究,1995,14(3)

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How to Cite

《资源环境数学模型手册》 (2018). 城市犯罪区位选择的数学模拟, Model Item, OpenGMS, https://geomodeling.njnu.edu.cn/modelItem/f4023203-fd44-4a53-b473-b3d72ac8c70d
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Last modifier : 
Mingyuan Li
Last modify time : 
2020-11-22
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Contributor(s)

initial contribute: 2018-12-04

Authorship

Affiliation:  
岳天祥编著
Email:  
yue@lreis.ac.cn
Homepage:  
View
Is authorship not correct? Feedback

History

Last modifier : 
Mingyuan Li
Last modify time : 
2020-11-22
Modify times : 
View History

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