A Multi Input Single Output (MISO) NARMAX model is used to provide a forecast of the daily averaged electron flux at GEO. NARMAX is a black box methodology and was trained on electron flux data from GOES13. It should be noted that the two day ahead forecast will change as more data is obtained for the current day.
The inputs to the model are the daily averaged L1 solar wind velocity and density, along with the fraction of time that the IMF is southward.
Daily averaged >2 MeV integral electron flux at GEO (electrons/(cm^2 sr day))
References and relevant publications
Boynton, R. J., Balikhin, M. A., Billings, S. A., and Amariutei, O. A.: Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1579-1589, doi:10.5194/angeo-31-1579-2013, 2013.
Richard Boynton, Space Instrumentation Group
Michael Balikhin, Director of Space Instrumentation Group
Stephen Billings, Director of Signal Processing and Complex Systems Team
Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering
The University of Sheffield
Sheffield, S1 3JD