SNB^3GEO

A Multi Input Single Output (MISO) NARMAX model is used to provide a forecast of the daily averaged electron flux at GEO. NARMAX is a black box methodology and was trained on electron flux data from GOES13. It should be noted that the two day ahead forecast will change as more data is obtained for the current day.

HELIOSPHERE

Contributor(s)
Initial contribute: 2020-07-02

Authorship

  • Richard Boynton, Michael Balikhin, Stephen Billings
    • :  
    University of Sheffield
    Is authorship not correct? Feed back

    Classification(s)

    ● Application-focused categoriesNatural-perspectiveSpace-earth regions

    Detailed Description

    English {{currentDetailLanguage}} English

    Quoted from: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/models_at_glance.php

    Model Description

    A Multi Input Single Output (MISO) NARMAX model is used to provide a forecast of the daily averaged electron flux at GEO. NARMAX is a black box methodology and was trained on electron flux data from GOES13. It should be noted that the two day ahead forecast will change as more data is obtained for the current day.

    Model Input
    The inputs to the model are the daily averaged L1 solar wind velocity and density, along with the fraction of time that the IMF is southward.

    Model Output
    Daily averaged >2 MeV integral electron flux at GEO (electrons/(cm^2 sr day))

    References and relevant publications
    Boynton, R. J., Balikhin, M. A., Billings, S. A., and Amariutei, O. A.: Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1579-1589, doi:10.5194/angeo-31-1579-2013, 2013.

    Relevant links
    http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html

    CCMC Contact(s)
    Masha Kuznetsova
    301-286-9571

    Developer Contact(s)
    Richard Boynton, Space Instrumentation Group
    phone: +44(0)1142225234

    Michael Balikhin, Director of Space Instrumentation Group
    phone: +44(0)1142225628

    Stephen Billings, Director of Signal Processing and Complex Systems Team
    phone: +44(0)1142225232

    Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering
    The University of Sheffield
    Mappin Street
    Sheffield, S1 3JD
    United Kingdom

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    模型元数据

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    Richard Boynton, Michael Balikhin, Stephen Billings (2020). SNB^3GEO, Model Item, OpenGMS, https://geomodeling.njnu.edu.cn/modelItem/3b35d146-30c9-48d8-bb19-637a946386b2
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    Contributor(s)
    Initial contribute : 2020-07-02

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    Authorship

  • Richard Boynton, Michael Balikhin, Stephen Billings
    • :  
    University of Sheffield
    Is authorship not correct? Feed back

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