COVID-19 Mortality Projections for US States

Graphs show both the reported and projected number of COVID-19 deaths per day across the US and for individual states and metropolitan areas. For each US state, we use local data from mobile-phone GPS traces to quantify the changing impact of social-distancing measures on “flattening the curve.”

COVID-19MortalityUS States



Initial contribute: 2020-05-01


University of Texas
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Method-focused categoriesProcess-perspectiveHuman-activity calculation

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Use daily data on COVID-19 deaths, together with mobile-phone data that allows us to characterize each state's social-distancing behavior, to form three-week-ahead projections of COVID-19 death rates in all US states and most major metropolitan areas.

Key model assumptions: (1) The observed and projected numbers reflect confirmed COVID-19 deaths only. (2) The model estimates the extent of social distancing using geolocation data from mobile phones and assumes that the extent of social distancing does not change during the period of forecasting. (3) The model is designed to predict deaths resulting from only a single wave of COVID-19 transmission and cannot predict epidemiological dynamics resulting from a possible second wave.

The peak is defined as the day on which our model’s prediction for the average daily death rate stops increasing and begins to decrease.



The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium (2020). COVID-19 Mortality Projections for US States, Model Item, OpenGMS,


Initial contribute : 2020-05-01



University of Texas
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